Year-End Competition Update

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

This year’s year-end competition still shows an interesting picture, and since we are going slowly but surely towards the year-end, we should look at where we are standing.

Extremes

As you will see, the volatility in the individual underlying’s market prices is somewhat represented in the spread between the highest and lowest of your estimates for gold, Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

Gold

The range in gold still stretches from USD 1’650 to USD 2’066, with roughly half of the estimates hovering around 1’850. Thus, my readers seem not too bullish on gold but slightly optimistic. This matches at least partially with yesterday’s market price of roughly USD 1’801.00.

Bitcoin

The range in Bitcoin stretches from USD 23’000 to USD 123’000. Now, for Bitcoin, the picture is very much different than for gold. So far, more than half of the estimates still lie above USD 70’000, which shows my readers’ great confidence for higher prices in Bitcoin, and so far, my readers have been pretty close to reality with their estimates. Also, they have until today rightly seen gold underperforming and Bitcoin reaching new highs. Well done! You know what? I could almost conclude that reading my weekly posts regularly develops people into great forecasters.

S&P 500     

The range in the S&P 500 stretches from USD 3’835 to USD 5’100. Almost two-thirds of the estimates came in lower than today’s market price, and therefore the rest of the estimates came in at above current prices.

Conclusion

Two more months to go and with inflation at the highest levels in more or less ten years, gold not living up to its expectations this year, Bitcoin almost seems like the new inflation hedge, even if the correlation is somewhat difficult to take as there are not yet enough data points on the timeline to come to such a conclusion, and finally, equities still performing well.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li