Comparing gold only to fiat currencies can only capture its properties so far. This is why we are regularly comparing gold to other assets, such as Bier or in this case, the iPhone. It is through these comparisons, that the properties of gold such as an inflation hedge can be observed even better. Let’s take a look.
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen
Thank you very much for your great comments and all the PDFs, videos, links and texts I have received. Unfortunately, I can not possibly view and/or read all of them. Please send me only what is genuinely different from mainstream thinking. To me, Ray Dalio, for example, is not. I follow him on LinkedIn and therefore mostly know what he publishes. On the other side, I like Kevin Muir; he looks at things differently.
“The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.”
Groucho Marx
Now, I am convinced most people even in Russia want to stop this war, bring the parties involved to the table, and discuss solutions everyone can live with. However, the particular interests and maybe even egos of the involved parties/politicians seem to make this currently impossible. Groucho would be astounded by the fact that our world leaders seem not even to be faking honesty and fair dealing anymore and still get away with it.
When it comes to inflation, I probably have indeed, as some of you suggested, a slightly different view because of living in Switzerland and working in Liechtenstein; besides higher gas prices for my car, I have so far not felt any difference. However, the government just published the new tariffs for electricity two days ago, and in our community, they will go up by roughly 27%.
From what people tell me and write to me about from outside Switzerland, i.e. mainly in Europe, the noise in the media is still higher than the inflation impact on the average citizen. I do not know if this is true, but in the past, the media seemed to exaggerate very often to create clicks. The media’s business case is built on selling, also thanks to ANGST. Ladies and Gentlemen, if we see let us say 10’000 (if at all) energy bills posted online, we think this is a lot; measured against almost 500 million inhabitants, it becomes a small number. I am by all means not downplaying that this energy crisis will hurt households, but I think a lot of it is known by now. Institutions are trying to seek solutions, and so far, humanity has always found ways of adapting to new situations, even if the process was painful.
The good thing about this energy crisis is that we are now forced to seek energy sources outside the established channels. So even if short-term this will hurt us, mid to long-term, it should help us to make us more antifragile.
As an asset manager, I am constantly trying to gauge what is in the price of financial markets and where is more potential for upside or downside. Interestingly, black swans are only ever conjured up in connection with negative scenarios, and the same applies in the meantime with grey swans; soon, I can imagine, there will be light grey and dark grey swans. Russia has completely stopped its gas deliveries to Germany. The gas price has only reacted negatively initially; in the meantime, it went down. So the leverage of decreasing gas supplies from Russia is now gone. What I want to say with this is that perhaps from this, the possibility of a light-grey swan arises, which in the abundance of the ubiquitously assumed black swans would stand out positively. Think about it, Ladies and Gentlemen.
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and above all and still, peace!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
We are happy to present our Monthly Gold Compass chartbook for September 2022. Packed with our usual charts, it also includes some new charts and a revision of the chapters.
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen
“My policies encourage the hardworking, protect the weak, and punish the lazy. There is no right to government-paid laziness.”
Guido Westerwelle, German politician, Federal Chairman of the FDP 1961 – 2016
This year’s second-highest jump in inflation in the European Union (E.U.) occurred in February 2022. In February 2022, E.U. inflation went up by +0.94% versus January 2022. However, the highest month-on-month inflation jump in the E.U. this year happened just one month later. In March 2022, inflation increased by a hefty +2.43%. This was among Europe’s highest month-on-month inflation increases in the past 50 years.
On September 8, 2022, the Governing Council of the ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, followed by a press conference. I expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 0.5%, maybe even 0.75%. Then, on October 27 and December 15, 2022, the Governing Council of the ECB will hold two more monetary policy meetings this year. That gives the ECB the chance to raise base rates three times during the next four months. Nevertheless, analysts, journalists, bankers, augurs and speculators assume E.U. inflation to increase well into 2023.
However, with all respect and as I mentioned above, it is essential to understand that the 2.43% March 2022 month-on-month inflation increase in the euro area represents one of the highest month-on-month inflation jumps in the past 50 years. Therefore, I believe it is fair to assume that in Q1 2023, inflation numbers will come down and be it just because of a base effect. The same, Ladies and Gentlemen, applies to the U.S., albeit at a lower base effect level. Consequently, the base rate increases and the expected base effect in Q1 2023 could mean eventually a reduction in the aggressiveness of the central banks’ communication towards the end of this year.
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and above all and still, peace!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li