Month: June 2024

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Tis not unreasonable for me to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”

David Hume

Bank of America monthly survey

Bank of America (BofA) delivers revealing data from monthly surveys among global fund managers. I like looking at those surveys and seeing these fund managers’ views on various topics. BofA’s latest monthly global fund manager survey shows a shift in fund managers’ preferences regarding global economic activity expectations. According to that survey, the “hard landing” camp is still in retreat, with only 5% of fund managers expecting a recession. However, the number of “no landing” supporters has also shrunk in the last two months, meaning that both the significant pessimists and optimists are on the retreat. The fund managers’ cash positioning stands at a mere 4.0%, while they keep an overweight in equities of 39%, which is as high as in Q4 of 2021. Noteworthy, I would think.

Risks according to the survey

Regarding the most significant risks, inflation remains the biggest concern for fund managers, although it is receding. Geopolitical concerns are in second place, and the US election is in third place. On the other hand, these concerns are on the rise. The US election in November 2024 is approaching and will be more prominent in the media in the coming weeks and months, and this influences fund managers’ (and all other people’s) thinking. As I mentioned in earlier editions of “Stefan’s Weekly”, I believe from a stock market perspective, there is little uncertainty for investors, as both US presidential candidates have already been in office for one term, and there is, therefore, little potential for surprises from a purely economic perspective. With regard to the second half of 2024, fund managers see Europe likely to perform slightly worse than the USA. The quintessence of stock market performance is a deterioration in economic activity.

UEFA EURO 2024

So far, the European Football Championship seems to have succeeded. It feels like a holiday from life and the daily flood of negative news that the media landscape of the past few years has produced with almost relish. I am happy that Switzerland is still in the tournament and will play Italy on Saturday. Hans is happy that Germany will go through to the next round as group winners and ahead of Switzerland. And Ronni is ecstatic because Austria is going into the last 16 as group winners in an adamant group with France, the Netherlands and Poland.

Wrong decision, or what we can learn from football

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are all human; we make mistakes, so this probably will not surprise you. In football, wrong decisions happen constantly, less today than before VAR, micro-chips in the ball, high precision cameras on drones, and all of those technical gadgets, but mistakes inevitably still happen. During and after football matches, there are discussions about off-sites, penalties, fouls, mistakes by referees, and you know what? This is fantastic because people are discussing, and even if they are not of the same opinion, with very few exceptions, they accept the result, take it from there and go on. This part of the game of football, which also involves wrong decisions, therefore has a not insignificant quality, and it is precisely this quality that can be found everywhere in life, both on a small and a large scale, and we maybe should, therefore not be tempted always to try to eliminate different opinions and equalise everyone and everything.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“You’ll never find a rainbow if you’re looking down.“

Charlie Chaplin

Update

Before all my readers go on vacation, I figured sending you an update on the Incrementum 2024 Year-End Competition would be appropriate. When I was writing this “Stefan’s Weekly”, the prices for the S&P 500 stood at 5’487.89 Points, for Gold at 2’355.48 and for Nvidia at 137.55 (after the 10 for 1 stock split).

S&P

So far, the highest bet on the S&P comes from Dario and stands at 5’651; Barbara’s bet is only one point behind 5’650 and the lowest at 4’000 and comes from Attila.

Gold

So far, the highest bet on gold stands stems from Hans at 2’500 and the lowest at 2’050.

Nvidia

Okay, Ladies and Gentlemen. Barbara’s highest bet on Nvidia is 1’250, and Adrien’s lowest is 195 a, and this was before the split. For me, almost anything is possible in this stock.

My bets         

I like to be transparent every year. However, I am not sure if I already let you know, so my bets are Gold 2’250, Nvidia 999, and the S&P 5’220.

Fingers Crossed

I keep my fingers crossed for all of you and look forward to sending this one-ounce silver coin to the winner at the end of the year.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“If printing money would end poverty, printing diplomas would end stupidity.“

Javier Gerardo Milei

Your E-Mails

I receive more and more e-mails from readers asking where markets are heading. I personally believe markets are reasonably stable. I am not too afraid of an imminent market crash; inflation seems to be under control. Surprisingly, most companies we invest in for our clients report even better numbers than we expected, leading to a much-appreciated side effect of increasing dividends. So far, so good.

ECB

The first interest rate cut in years was much expected, and still, it was a cut. Some market participants will always see the glass half empty. The fact is that the ECB cut its base rates today by 0.25%.

Crisis

In financial markets, there is always more not-crisis than crisis. Why some investors gear their portfolios continuously versus “more crisis” is a mystery to me. We see constant political crises seemingly all over the place. I do not think this is going to disappear all too soon. But even in such political crises, many companies deliver positive cashflows, which investors can harvest.

War?

Currently, I am less afraid of a global war than I am of the effects of tariffs and sanctions. Tariffs and sanctions have a terrible impact on the global economy and global wealth and usually hurt large parts of a population rather than the people they are directed at.

Crash?

Do I see an imminent crash looming around the corner? No, I do not. Do I exclude a crash? No, of course not. Crashes are part of the game.

Political influence

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, politics may influence financial markets. However, this is primarily short-term for global markets. Politics usually have a very limited long-term impact on global markets as such, while local markets, i.e. like the U.K. ever since Brexit, may be hurt for quite some time. Furthermore, international companies as actors in a global marketplace prove to be relatively resilient as they can shift their businesses from region to region, perhaps losing market share for some time, operating on negative cash flow for a quarter or two, but surviving and prospering after a while in a new setting.

The U.S.

Am I afraid of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections in Q4 2024 in regard to financial markets? No, I am not particularly afraid; I am fascinated and surprised to see that these are the best candidates the U.S. can produce and offer to its voters in 2024. Nevertheless, the U.S. is still a constitutional state with checks and balances, and therefore, I suppose there is no need to be exceptionally afraid.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li