Bottom-Up

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“It is also human not to always give in to every fear.”

Joachim Wilhelm Gauck, President of Germany from 2012 to 2017

Last weekly

Ladies and Gentlemen, I received significant feedback for my last “Stefan’s Weekly”. In summary, I am happy to report that many readers share my conviction that we should treat tail risks as such and not overestimate them, and of course, that it is suitable for investors to change their perspective from time to time consciously. Maybe this will change their mindset or investment behaviour; if not, it will confirm one’s existing perspective, which is a flattering experience for most people. One feedback stuck out to me, and I would like to share it with you. It comes from John, and it goes like this: “Hoarding gold, crypto, and food means nothing if you do not have a solid community. You would be robbed, or money will eventually run out. A community is necessary to get out of tough times.” What can I say? I totally agree.

German residential construction

One of the sectors I usually keep an eye on is residential real estate. Residential real estate plays an essential economic role in many countries. In Germany, the crisis in residential construction continues to worsen. In August, 20.7% of companies reported cancelled projects, up from 18.9% in the previous month. This is according to surveys by the IFO Institute. “Cancellations in residential construction are piling up to a new high. We have not seen anything comparable since the survey began in 1991. The uncertainty in the market is huge,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, head of IFO surveys. Yesterday’s interest rate hike by the European Central Bank, the tenth in a row, is unlikely to lead to a positive change in these survey results, but risks to hit the sector again. For me, this data means I still keep my hands off the sector.

Macro versus bottom-up

Some analysts, bankers, fund managers and the like are trying hard to predict the economic future of economies, make a business model out of predicting it, and perhaps even invest investors’ money according to their prediction. The point is, it is utterly difficult to foresee the future also in macroeconomics, and most models are, if I want to be generous, not entirely flawless and if I do not want to be generous, total crap.

The effect of compounding

That is why we have taken a different approach for our private customers. We focus on business sectors that promise positive cashflows over the cycle and try to find companies and their seasoned business models within these sectors in a bottom-up approach that are available at reasonable prices, i.e. valuations. Those companies must be willing to share the generated cashflows with their investors. The approach is very long-term; short-term volatility is an intrinsic part of the investment style. The beauty of it comes from the exponential effect of compounding. Dividend payments can be reinvested and lead over time to ever more cashflows. Hard data on the macro environment, i.e. not forecasts, may have an influence on the sectors we look at, as outlined in the example of the German real estate sector.

Wrap up

The audacity of some market participants to believe in being more competent than the entire cohort of financial market participants is striking to me. I think that only because the average investor forgets very quickly and is either unaware of or unable to fight the confirmation bias, macroeconomic forecasts play such a prominent role in investment management. Keeping the macro environment in mind while following a strict bottom-up approach seems more sensible to me than trying to call any subsequent interest increase or decrease in some opaque process.

Your point of view

Ladies and Gentlemen, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and a wonderful weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li