Category: Stefan’s Weekly

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Year-end competition

Ben asked me about Incrementum’s partners’ positions in the year-end competition. I finished second and had my numbers published last spring; there is complete transparency. However, my partners did not participate. The year before, my partner Hans participated, but in 2022 he was too busy making money for our investors and this he did! Now back to the competition. I usually finish more or less among the first three. This year as mentioned, I finished second. When I was in the first place, I sent the silver coin to the person in second place. This happened roughly four or five years ago when my friend from University, Andreas, received the coin.

Little secret

The question is, how do I finish within more or less the first three regularly? Ok, let me tell you a little secret. It is because I orient myself at the futures prices and keep away from speculation and daily noise at the start of the year-end competition.

Futures prices

All the buy- and sell-side participants’ know-how of an entire market is reflected in those futures prices. So, for example, Brent crude oil was trading at 125 in March 2022, but the futures contract for December stood at 86, which meant that even producers, the largest oil companies on the planet, did not believe that oil would finish the year at 150. Otherwise, they would not sell their products at a much lower price in a forward market. Alternatively, while I am writing this, the price for one ounce of gold in December 2023 is trading at 1’977. So what is the rationale for coming up with a price estimate of, let us say, 2’463.29? It does not make sense when currently, even the largest gold miners are happy to sell their production forward in December 2023 for 1’977. Of course, futures prices fluctuate heavily, a little less at the long-, yet more at the short end. Still, they are always worth looking at as one indication of several.

Psychology

Humans have a bias toward overweighting short-term events. When investing, this is not always very helpful. Moreover, we are awful at admitting mistakes. We absolutely hate being caught wrong. Even after years of underperformance, we keep holding on to our views because our ego wants us to be right more than anything else, even more than make money. Lastly, we love being told what we want to hear. This is why we prefer to read what confirms our view rather than reading stuff challenging it. You know what? That makes me happy because it offers opportunities. I am always trying to challenge my views, which is hard, and I admit I am not very good at it. Nevertheless, it sometimes works, and I hope to improve with age.

Interview

The following link leads to an interview I gave to «Executive Global» I thought you might like it:

The Swiss Banker – Incrementum

Enjoy the read, Ladies and Gentlemen!

Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, joy!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Finally, and once again, the sleepless nights are over; time to declare our year-end competition winner.

Like every year, the data stems from Finanz und Wirtschaft (fuw.ch).

Gold

According to the above source, Gold closed the year at USD 1’824.56, in negative territory for the second consecutive year, despite spiking inflation. A few of my readers were hoovering around USD 1’850; however, most were far too optimistic. Dario’s estimate came in at USD 1’834 and therefore was the closest. Well done, Dario and many thanks for participating!

Brent Crude Oil    

According to the above source, Brent Crude Oil closed the year at USD 83.09. However, the participants were too bullish on Brent Crude Oil, with estimates going up to USD 160. The closest call in Brent Crude Oil came from Mark with USD 84. Well done, Mark and many thanks for participating!

S&P 500:         

According to the above source, the S&P 500 closed the year at 3’849.28. Almost every year, my readers are far too negative for equity markets; I wonder why this is the case because, statistically, there is no better way to invest than in equities. Anyway, the lowest bid for the 2022 year-end competition for the S&P 500 came in at 1’881. The closest call in the S&P 500 came from Marius with 3’812 points. Well done, Marius and many thanks for participating!

The Winner 

The winner of the Incrementum 2022 year-end competition and thus of the one-ounce Silver coin is John. John is a long-term reader of Stefan’s weekly, writing back to me regularly and sharing interesting views and knowledge! Congrats, dear John, well done!

Most probably, there will be another competition in 2023.

Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you an excellent start to the year, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

The final days of December have arrived; in Liechtenstein and Switzerland, the cold and some snow has covered the countryside and mountains. Therefore, this is the time for me to thank you for your thoughts, insides and challenging conversations.

Merry Christmas

I wish a merry Christmas to all of you and your loved ones and a happy and prosperous and, to some extent, exciting New Year! I will send out the result of our year-end competition at the beginning of 2023 and have the one-ounce silver coin delivered to the winner.

Ladies and Gentlemen, take care, stay healthy and enjoy a calm and peaceful year-end.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

My last Stefan’s weekly on cryptocurrencies versus fiat currencies led to questions, suggestions and speculations. Many thanks, Ladies and Gentlemen, for your active participation in this.

Cryptocurrencies

One question that came up many times was if I could imagine Bitcoin going up to its former highs again. Quite frankly, I can imagine many things, also that the price for Bitcoin and other cryptos increases to or even above its former highs. Generally, the networks created over the blockchain can be of great use not only for transferring money and/or alternative currencies. However, as I mentioned last week, there are significant risks in the crypto space, which is why I do not invest in it for the time being.

Precious metals

Precious metals are, of course, and like cryptocurrencies, another non-productive asset class not producing any cashflows. Nevertheless, I feel much more comfortable holding gold and silver than cryptocurrencies. First of all, they are tangible and second of all, the concept of storing value in them, with all the sometimes extreme volatility we have experienced over the last decades, has been proven for thousands of years.
Maybe it is because of my age, or maybe it is because of «In Gold We Trust».

In gold we trust

Admittedly, Ladies and Gentlemen, I have a bias regarding precious metals. After all, we are the producers of the «In Gold We Trust» report, which is much more than a study about gold. It explains economic contexts and offers reasonably independent opinions on today’s economic and monetary policy facts. Thanks to the many graphic representations, complex issues can sometimes be conveyed uncomplicated, straightforwardly, and concisely. For our long-time readers, it builds on existing knowledge and develops it further. Nevertheless, the individual chapters are self-contained and can thus also provide new readers with a relatively easy introduction to the respective topic, and best of all, it can be downloaded for free directly from ingoldwetrust.report – Incrementum. For those who have not so far, check it out.

What I do not hope for

I was asked the following: «When the dust has settled, the smoke has cleared, all the asset bubbles burst, the U.S. and World Debt Clocks explode, gold prices finally reach $50,000 per OZ, and silver reaches $5,000 per OZ, what does that world look like?» I receive similar questions from different people from time to time, and my answer to those is always the same: «Not a very friendly environment. Large-scale civil unrest would probably be a consequence. Let us hope this will never happen. Not an environment I would like to live in.»

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and a wonderful Advent season.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Last week I wrote that I would come back to the beautiful quote in Ernest Hemingway’s  iconic book «The Sun Also Rises» or «Fiesta» in which his character Mike Campbell is asked how he went bankrupt, and his answer is:

«Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.»

Fiat Currencies

Often I am asked why fiat currencies are called fiat currencies. I found this relatively concise definition by Investopedia (Investopedia: Sharper insight, better investing.). Fiat money is a government-issued currency not backed or only partially backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. Thus the value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government. Most modern paper currencies are fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the euro, and other major global ones. The term “fiat” is a Latin word that is often translated as “it shall be” or “let it be done.” Thus fiat currencies only have value because the government maintains that value. The national economy of the issuing country backs them.

Cryptocurrencies based on the example of Bitcoin

Like many other cryptocurrencies, the idea behind Bitcoin is that of a currency not linked to the monetary policy of any national economy and with an intrinsic anti-inflation mechanism built into its DNA, in which the maximum number that can be mined is capped at 21 million. Furthermore, transfers from one Bitcoin holder to another are possible at no cost 24/7 as long as there is electricity and internet. Last but not least, the word «crypto», which can be translated as «hidden» or «secret», means that owners of cryptocurrencies can stay anonymous while using them to purchase things or execute transfers for other reasons.
However, like most cryptocurrencies and as mentioned above, Bitcoin is not backed by any issuing government or anything else, really. This means Bitcoin has no intrinsic value in the traditional sense. In addition, until today, we, as the public, still do not know who invented and coded Bitcoin. Satoshi Nakamoto (Satoshi Nakamoto – Wikipedia) is the pseudonym for the person or group behind the development of Bitcoin. Finally, because Bitcoin is not a productive asset, it can only increase in price if someone is willing to pay a higher price than the current owner.

Crypto trading

As Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory put it the other day, Crypto trading has a much laxer regulatory framework, especially regarding what would be considered insider trading and material, non-public information in the stock and bond markets. There is probably a reason that many of these crypto trading shops are based in Asia and the Caribbean.

Conclusion I

There are some undeniable positive features of cryptocurrencies, and there are risks. I wrote in «Stefan’s weekly» long ago that inflation is limited within many well-known cryptocurrencies because mining is capped. However, the issuance of new cryptocurrencies is not capped and may have an inflationary effect on the entire sector. According to Coin Market Cap (Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts And Market Capitalizations | CoinMarketCap), 21’908 exist today, much more than I would have thought.

Investment decision

Any investment decision comes down to anyone’s personal asset allocation principles and risk appetite. Make sure you know how much risk you want to take and how much risk you can take.

Conclusion II

Suppose you feel like «investing» in Bitcoin, not knowing who is behind the codes, understanding that there is no intrinsic value or tangibility, yet, very high volatility, and you still see enormous upside potential because it represents a limited «good» and is not linked to any national economy’s monetary policy, then maybe you want to take a shot at it.

Conclusion III

The FTX collapse struck many investors. Today they can share Mike Campbell’s experience of going bankrupt in two ways, gradually and suddenly. Greed and fear are part of the game and will always be. Think about it!

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and peace above all!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

In his iconic book «The Sun Also Rises» or «Fiesta», Ernest Hemingway’s character Michael Campbell (Mike) is asked how he went bankrupt, and this is his answer:

«Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.»

Brexit

In 2018 I was asked to share my view on BREXIT, which led to an article in the summer edition of the magazine « Global Executive ». One of the key messages was the following:

«In my view, one of the biggest risks is that the Bank of England will flood the market with money to offset the effects of an opaque business investment climate that will certainly reign until the negotiations between the U.K. and the E.U. bring clarity and that this flood of money will not only weaken the British currency but will lead to inflation and eventually backfire at British consumers.»

Foreseeing the future

Obviously, I cannot foresee the future; it was just common sense. The sterling lost about 40% of its value, the Bank of England flooded the market, and inflation is staggering; average British consumers are suffering. Nevertheless, I can imagine that there is potential in the U.K. Some great companies have been hammered down, and I would not be surprised to see at least a market rebound.

Link

If you feel like reading the full text, please feel free to click on the link below:

https://www.incrementum.li/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Life-after-Brexit-Executive-Global.pdf

Next week

Next week, Ladies and Gentlemen, I will come back on Mike Campbell’s quote «two ways. Gradually, then suddenly».

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and peace above all!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

«After a time, you may find that having is not as pleasing as wanting. It is not logical but is often true».

Spock, Star Trek, Season 2, Episode 1 – Amok Time, 1968

Dinner with friends

I had this interesting discussion with friends over dinner. Four couples, tasty food, great wine – maybe slightly too much, same age range, comfortable lifestyle. You understand the setting. Do you know what the bottom line was after this dinner? Well, the bottom line of our evening was that today we do not always want more of everything but rather the best of the essentials. Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I did not sleep well that night. The bottom line of our discussion over dinner made me think!

Bull market – some history

When the Spaniard Hernán Cortés and his 550 companions reached the east coast of Mexico in 1519, he brought disease, death and destruction to the Aztecs and the bad habit of bullfighting. Over the decades, cultural appropriation has taken place in most Spanish-speaking countries. However, the custom developed slightly differently in each country. The Mexicans replaced the bullfighter with a bear. In Texas, which belonged to Mexico until 1845, they chose bulls with long horns (longhorns) and pitted them against chained grizzly bears in an arena. These bloody fights were particularly popular with the gold miners in California during the gold rush (1848-1854).

From below or from above – a question of technique

Bull and bear had different fighting techniques. While the bull attacked with his head down and tried to spear his opponent from the bottom up, the bear fought back, delivering a powerful paw strike to the attacker from the top down.

More history

The Spanish author Don Joseph de la Vega (Joseph de la Vega – Wikipedia), with his standard work on the Amsterdam stock exchange published in 1688, brought the bull and the bear onto the trading floor. In his moralising polemic “Confusion of Confusions”, the bull stands for rising prices, and the bear for falling prices, both because of their fighting technique and the designation “bullish” for optimists and “bearish” for pessimists has persisted to this day.

Why did it make me think?

So, Why did I not sleep well after this wonderful dinner with our friends, and why did it make me think? Because I think it is pure luxury to state «not always more of everything but rather the best of the essentials». Most of us live a privileged life, and we should keep that in mind.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and peace above all!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Admin

Today I have to start on a personal note. As you know, in every «Stefan’s Weekly» I am writing the following at the end:

« As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!»

However, there are still readers hitting the reply button for one reason or the other. This is very uncool because the messages do not come to me but go to «mailchimp», the program we use to distribute our newsletters. Our mailchimp administrator is my partner Ronni, who spends a fair amount of time on the road, speaking at conferences worldwide, doing marketing and seeing investors. When he sees the messages, he gladly forwards them to me, but they often go under in the houndreds of emails he receives regularly. So please, Ladies and Gentlemen, share your opinion with me, but please send them to: smk@incrementum.li. Thank you very much for your understanding!

Recapitulation

As you all know, the book is closed, and no more participants are accepted. The final highest S&P bid stands at 4’482, and the final lowest is at 1’881. The final highest bid for gold stands at 2’350, and the final lowest was at 1’715. For Brent crude oil, the final price estimates range from 160 to 33.63. As always, all prices are USD.

Today’s prices     

While I am writing this edition of «Stefan’s weekly», the S&P is trading at 3’885.12, gold at 1’712.10 and Brent crude oil at 92.86. Therefore, the S&P and gold prices went up; crude oil has stayed more or less flat since my last update.

Will we see a year-end rally     

Usually, and according to the stats we are looking at, November is the second-best trading month of the year, right after April. Usually, again, the strong performance season is roughly lasting from October/November until April. Once more, usually, presidential midterms are followed by a strong performance in equities. Then, of course, there are the usual standard deviations and no certainties, all but indications, Ladies and Gentlemen, all but indications. So now, will we see a year-end rally? I do not know, but looking at the markets over the last few weeks, I almost have the impression that we are in the midst of one.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and peace above all!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

«Happiness is contagious; spread it!» (from a fortune cookie)

Once in a while, I receive emails with questions about cryptocurrencies. For example, one reader argued that cryptocurrencies backed by precious metals would be tangible. Another reader asked me if governments/central banks could issue cryptocurrencies out of thin air. Of course, I am happy to share my take on it.

Gentlemen’s agreement

However, first, for an interview in the Executive Global Magazine, I was asked to describe what defines Incrementum AG; this is what I said:
«Besides the fact that we love what we are doing and are very passionate about what we do, we are patient and generous with our staff, customers, outsourcing partners, and ourselves. (I know, this is a bit taky and what everyone would say, the next part is key, though). However, one of the critical factors for success in our organisation is the gentlemen’s agreement among partners to take any strategic decision only with 100% consent by all five partners. To reach a consensus, it is necessary to approach others, take their needs and wishes seriously, and put one’s wishes and needs on the back burner to some extent; this has fostered not only trust among us partners but also promoted responsible action.»

Tangibility

If an investor considers the fact that an asset is physically tangible to be necessary, cryptocurrencies will not be able to play a role in his investment universe. Under no circumstances are cryptocurrencies tangible; this was probably quite deliberately never part of the design equation of cryptocurrencies and should, therefore, not be an expected feature. The good thing about physical precious metals is their tangibility. No cryptocurrency will ever have that feature; we should never forget that.

What about precious metals-backed cryptocurrencies?

The same is true here; cryptocurrencies are not tangible, even backed by precious metals. In this context, we can also use futures on precious metals as an example. Although precious metals themselves are tangible, futures on them are not. Again, this is because they are not “tangible”; they only exist in «paper» or digital form.

Investment purpose

However, depending on an investor’s investment purpose, precious metals-backed cryptocurrencies, which is today’s topic, may represent a valuable investment tool. So it comes down to one of asset management’s most important questions: “what is your investment purpose»? If a solid and regulated issuer issues a token backed by physical precious metals and if those precious metals are regularly audited and stored in a known or better in many different and known locations, and if the storage, the management of the process, the insurance, the auditing etc. is not costing an arm and a leg in yearly fees, there may be a market for precious metals backed crypto assets.

Cost

Nevertheless, investors should remember that precious metals do not produce cashflows. However, managing, storing, insuring, and auditing the physical precious metal of any such precious metals-backed crypto asset creates cost. The critical question to look out for is how the issuer of such tokens caters to the cost.

What about cryptocurrencies issued by governments?

Cryptocurrencies issued by governments would presumably be regulated by the issuing government and backed by its national economy. They could be issued like today’s conventional currencies within the given central bank’s mandate (and yes, if you want to some extent “out of thin air”). As pure book currencies, they would not be tangible either. Cryptocurrencies issued by governments would most probably lose the design feature “crypto” because I assume governments would probably build in features offering them full transparency about who uses the currency where and for what. In this respect, it would be a “digital fully transparent currency” rather than a cryptocurrency.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and peace above all!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

«No one left to their own devices can be rational enough to come to consistently reasonable conclusions.» (Steven Pinker)

Interest rates

Yesterday, the European Central Bank lifted its base rate by 0.75%. This move was widely expected. Next Wednesday, November 2, 2022, the next Fed meeting will occur. Again, a rate hike of 0.75 % is expected. For the following meeting on December 14, 2022, only a 0.50% hike is currently favored and priced in. The mood there has changed very recently; some two weeks ago, another rate hike of 0.75% was still priced in. This change of mind by investors has had a relieving effect on the stock markets.

Stats

The period two to three days before a Fed meeting has a positive statistical bias. Furthermore, November is one of the year’s strongest months regarding stock market performance. As a matter of fact, for the last 30 years, November, after April, has been the second-best month of the year, and since World War II, there has not been a down period for the S&P 500 in the twelve months following the mid-term elections.

What is happening to hedge strategies?

U.S. banks such as Goldman Sachs report more extensive sales of put options. At the same time, short-sold index futures are being covered. In other words, institutional equity investors seem to be smoothing out their hedges.

Conclusion

To me, all of this could build an exciting environment for a year-end rally. The risks are still there, yet they seem to be known and in the heads of market participants by now and last but not least:

Sale

People generally buy more things if they are on sale, and they buy less the more expensive they get. However, with financial assets, it is the opposite round. The cheaper they get, the fewer people are interested in them and find all the reasons to see all sorts of risks, and the more expensive they get, the more interest they attract, and risks seem almost non-existent. To me, this is flabbergasting and far away from realism and reason.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and above all and still, peace!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li