Crazy

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“A country, once overturned, cannot be restored;
the dead cannot be brought to life.”

Sun Tzu

What the hell is going on?

Some of our human peers seem to go totally crazy; frankly, not all of our political leaders can deal adequately with today’s complex issues. I honestly cannot think much of the blaming and denied conversations, fighting and slaughtering of innocent people. Who is responsible for electing such “leaders”? Maybe it would make sense to eventually look for common grounds, common denominators instead of differences. I almost believe that André Kostolany was right when he claimed: “The greatest speculation of all time would be to buy a politician at his intrinsic value and sell at his self-perceived value.” People unable or unwilling to eventually reach a consensus should not be elected.

Our job

Nevertheless, we are asset managers, Ladies and Gentlemen; regardless of what is happening in this world, we need to manage the money of our clients/investors the best way we can. This is not always an easy task, and clients/investors are, of course, no homogenous group of people. While some are afraid and see only risks, others are happy to take on risks because they seek high long-term returns.

Sticking to the mandate’s strategy

Since we still cannot foresee the future, we are sticking to our mandates’ strategies. Sometimes, it helps to take some steps back and take a different perspective. Moreover, this would not be “Stefan’s Weekly” if it did not end positively because there are also chances, i.e. indicators that look pretty okay, and I am happy to share them with you.

On a positive note

Let me, therefore, finish on a positive note. Most of you probably know the stats, and statistically, the best six months of the stock market year begin on November 1, i.e. next Wednesday. Only 5 of the 23 periods in this century (starting with the year 2000) were negative. In addition, a positive divergence is visible in the McClellan oscillator. This means the best season of the year for financial markets is about to begin, the McClellan oscillator shows an optimistic picture; the smart money is okay, i.e. not really bullish (= positive counter indicator), the put buying is high (= positive counter indicator), the oil price is going down, the S&P 500 is at its 1-year moving average and its April/May support. Last, but not least, Bitcoin is over USD 30,000.00, and hardly anyone notices or cares. If you ask me, it would be strange if the markets continued to sag for much longer.

Your point of view

Ladies and Gentlemen, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and a wonderful weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li