I am not convinced!

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

I am not convinced! I am not convinced we will see the sort of inflation augurs are expecting. The mainstream media is full of inflation fears; the alternative channels are full of inflation fears; if you are, like I am currently, arguing against it, you get rather lonely. I am used to «getting lonely on a lonesome trail.»

Why?

I personally do not believe in comparing historical events. One may draw conclusions from the past, but I believe life is (maybe, unfortunately) not that simple. Just to project such conclusions into the present or future, stimulate investors’ confirmation bias, drawing big conclusions to me is not good enough.

Where is the correlation?

Since the 1960s, there has been no statistical correlation between inflation and broad money growth. As I have pointed out in previous weeklies, today the velocity of money circulation remains extremely low, and therefore the enormous money supply growth of recent years does not lead to inflation, except, Ladies and Gentlemen, in asset prices.

Asset Price Inflation

Ladies and Gentlemen, we see an asset price inflation, higher equity prices, higher real estate prices, higher prices for second-hand watches, etc. and we also see signs of inflation due to product shipping issues, higher energy prices and maybe raw material cost, but these, I believe, are onetime effects.

Antifragility

As an investor, you want to stay antifragile as much as possible. Talib taught us to be flexible. If one is structuring an investment strategy only for one event, inflation, one is, in fact, everything but antifragile. Betting on one event is a perilous strategy. Why would one do that? The opportunity cost is enormous.

Conclusion

Even Russel Napier, a critical mind, stated in a recent interview in the Swiss financial newspaper «Finanz und Wirtschaft» that solid companies’ equities offer some inflation protection, and I am adding furthermore they offer cash returns in the form of dividends. To me, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is absolutely no way around a mixed portfolio. The mix should be customised to the investor’s very personal taste and needs.

Please let me know your views!

Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth