Interest Rates and Outlook

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.”

by Cato the Elder, a Roman Politician 150 BC

Emails

I received some emails asking for a market outlook. I usually do not like to predict the future because I do not believe in predicting, unless one can win a silver coin. Nevertheless, I am happy to share my view of what happened in 2023 and the potential consequences for 2024. Investing during the first quarter was essential when looking at our private clients’ portfolios. The ones that missed the first quarter did not perform. Unfortunately, the performance is not evenly distributed. This is also why I am advocating, as a general rule, investing and staying invested. Trying to time the market is utterly difficult.

Interest rates drive the market

Under normal circumstances, one would assume interest rates to drive the markets. However, at least in the short term, perception is even more important than fact, which is precisely what happened in December 2023. There is a famous saying among traders, and it goes like this: «Buy the rumour, sell the fact». I think it is fair to say that this happened in December 2023. The perception was that U.S. base rates would drop for the first time in Q1 2024, and markets went up. But will there be rate cuts in Q1 2024 already? I do not think so.

ECB and Fed

I believe the ECB and the Fed will keep their base interest rates high for longer than anticipated by the market because I believe the current rates will stay where they are until the decision-makers are convinced that inflation is falling, particularly in core services. However, I also believe that the central bankers have reached the end of their interest rate hikes.

Bullish markets

Especially towards the end of the year, markets went up on decreasing interest rate fantasies. The central bankers from the ECB and the Fed seemed much more cautious than the markets, and there are still objective reasons for this because of the ongoing tight labour market and sticking inflation that is still well above target. Even if some market participants feel differently, the central banker’s caution is probably essential because if central banks decrease interest rates too early and inflation remains high, markets may collapse, and central bankers may face a credibility issue.

Okay, but when will we see the first interest rates decrease?

I obviously do not know, maybe in Summer? You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, the great uncertainty as to the «when» is driven by the fact that the high-interest rates will only have a delayed effect on the economy. This is why central bankers repeat at every meeting that monetary policy works with long and variable delays, making it difficult to estimate the magnitude of the slowdown.

Is a recession in the cards?

We certainly are in a recession in Germany, but for the U.S., I am more optimistic and see low growth rates or a soft landing. 2024 is an election year in the U.S., which could drive the market because election years under a democrat presidency are usually good years for equities.

The quote

The quote, sent in by Mike, stems from a Roman senator 2’200 years ago and is about the destruction of the North African city of Carthage. It shows that, in some respects, we seem not to have developed despite all the knowledge accumulated over that period. Think about it!

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li