Interesting

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

This year’s year-end competition shows an interesting picture.

Extremes

As you will see, the volatility in the individual underlying’s market prices is somewhat represented in the spread between the highest and lowest of your estimates for gold, Bitcoin and the S&P 500. However, there are still estimates dropping in every day; thus, I will only calculate the weighted average for each category in a few weeks from now. So far the picture is the following:

Gold

The range in gold stretches from USD 1’650 to USD 2’066, with roughly half of the estimates hovering around 1’850. Thus, my readers seem not too bullish on gold but slightly optimistic.

Bitcoin

The range in Bitcoin stretches from USD 23’000 to USD 87’000. Now, for Bitcoin, the picture is very much different than for gold. So far, roughly half of the estimates lie above USD 70’000, which shows my reader’s great confidence for higher prices in Bitcoin.

S&P 500

The range in the S&P 500 stretches from USD 3’835 to USD 5’048. However, half of the estimates came in lower than today’s market price, and half of the estimates came in above today’s market price.

Conclusion

Hitherto, it seems most of you are bullish on Bitcoin, slightly positive on gold and neutral on the S&P 500.

My Prediction

Some of you had noticed that, unlike in the past years, I had not yet given my prediction. True, I was always the first one to show my cards. However, this year I kept them close to my chest because I did not want to influence anyone in any way.

I forecast that gold will close at USD 1’900, Bitcoin will close at 66’000 and the S&P 500 at 5’100.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:… but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth