Tag: Interest rates

There is no magic!

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

There is no magic! Financial well-being and prosperity need a minimum amount of economic growth.

You know, I received a fair amount of positive feedback to Anton’s article on increased productivity and economic growth thanks to cheap and all time readily available (fossil) energy and again, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is no magic, economic growth demands cheap and 24/7 readily available energy.

… and without economic growth, large parts of populations will not be able of keeping their standard of living on current levels and even less of increasing it, unfortunately there is no magic there either.

I believe if large parts of a population feel economic pressure, eventually those people will want to vent their feelings, and this may lead to unpredictable and inconvenient consequences. The yellow vests movement in France is only one very recent example right in front of our doorsteps.

The cost of such protests is enormous and, there is again no magic, will have to be borne by the country’s population. While the wealthier cohort will not really feel any impact, it is a twist of fate that the less fortunate cohort, the ones that are in the street protesting for a better life, will be hurt even more over time through indirect tax increases, inflation, general increase in cost of living.

The question for me and my readers is how to invest in such an environment. I firmly believe there is again no magic. If you want to have some sort of cash return on your assets in a 0% or negative interest environment, you can get it by accepting volatility. If you are ready to accept volatility you can have easily 4% – 5% cash return on your investments. But volatility is not for everyone. People get very quickly very nervous. Long term statistics show that equities beat bonds but the price you pay for the extra performance of equities over bonds is volatility. No magic, Ladies and Gentlemen! I don’t mind volatility; I prefer low volatility to high volatility, but I don’t really mind it that much.

Besides equities, where do you want to invest your money and receive a cash return if not in equities?

What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, as Anton did, please share your thoughts, ideas and/or experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

“Die Nullzins Falle”

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Due to the Easter weekend I decided not to send out my weekly last Friday.

Now, today I would like to mention a book called “Die Nullzins Falle”. My partner Ronald P. Stöferle acted as one of the three co-authors of the book. As the title suggests “Die Nullzins Falle” describes the authors’ views on long-term socio-economic effects of the current ultra-low interest rates. The book takes on purpose a rather critical view and intends to elaborate on the riskier, more unpleasant, maybe even dangerous side of current monetary policies.

The book certainly makes an interesting read and it can be ordered in any online bookstore under the ISBN number: 978-3-95972-019-9.

These days I receive a fair number of messages and phone calls from private clients and investors. As we are approaching new highs in the markets one part of the people calling me or writing to me suggests a sudden market crash, while the other half is seeing even higher prices.

I simply don’t know where the markets are heading but I must admit I like taking profits and that is exactly what I am doing now. I sell bits and pieces here and there. I am selling small positions into the strength. Taking profits is a very satisfying thing to do and even if I may miss out on another up-move, I simply don’t care. Just to be clear, I am not liquidating any portfolio but am rather selling very small positions here and there and only into the strength.

While I am currently a net seller of equities, I am still a buyer of equities of companies that seem somewhat out of favour. However, even the companies I am currently considering as add-ons to the portfolios always have to be net free cash-flow positive and not suffering from any negative structural issues. Sticking to that rule I might have to wait a little until such companies’ equities will be traded up again at some time in the future but until then the positive cash-flows will deliver cash returns on capital invested.

What is your opinion, will we see a major market correction or soaring markets? Let me know about your investment style and please share your investment experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
 
Kind regards,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Monetary U-Turn – When Will the Fed Start Easing Again? Incrementum Advisory Board Q1/2019 – feat. Special Guest Trey Reik (Sprott USA)

Posted on by Incrementum AG

Dear investors, friends and clients,

Are we at the cusp of a Monetary U-Turn? What will the Fed do next; hike, ease, or keep their hand on the pause button?
During this quarter’s advisory board call we had a lively discussion between Jim Rickards, and special guest Trey Reik, about the Fed’s likely next move.

Trey works at Sprott USA, and has deep knowledge about gold, gold mining stocks, and monetary policy.

During the call we also talked about:

• What sort of chairman is Powell showing himself to be?
• Is institutional interest for gold finally coming back?
• How is the fed using balance sheet normalization in conjunction with interest rate policy?
• What is central bank purchasing of gold signalling to the market?

We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring!

Have a great week!

Kind regards from Liechtenstein,
Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Incrementum AG