The multipolar world
Rate hikes and the soft-landing narrative
We correctly predicted that inflation would move much higher. Now we are looking at a recession which will most likely hit the whole western world. Europe in particular seems to be in a bad spot, since the energy crisis is especially pronounced here. The same cannot be said for the United States, where the crisis has not hit as hard. In addition to that, the Federal Reserve reacted much more quickly. At the same time, the current narrative of a “soft landing” is not really feasible, and the FED is playing a very dangerous game, with the US economy on the line.
The shift of 2020
Once the recession will be here, it will especially be governments and fiscal policy, which will take over. Since the Covid crisis, a greater emphasis has been laid on fiscal policy, with the current energy crisis being a perfect example. More and more government handouts will create more and more people dependent on set government. The read we are currently driving on leads straight towards some sort of socialism.
The multipolar world and commodities
Commodities have been at the centre of the discussion in 2022 with the Ukraine War on one side and the push for green energy on the other side. The west was caught out badly and the BRICS countries and others correctly anticipated the large position for bargaining they have, since they are in control of a lot of vital commodities. A lot of developments are currently taking place, like the Moscow gold exchange or other similar projects. Europe and the west have a lot of work ahead of them, when it comes to obtaining these resources, finding new deposits at home and developing them. This will take time, money as well as skilled labour.
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