Tipping Point?

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

«The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.»
John Maynard Keynes

One last hike?

It seems most of my readers think this was it, Ladies and Gentlemen, the last hike for this inflationary period. So much the sum of the comments to my lase «Stefan’s weekly».

U.S. labour market

The labour market in the USA, which has been running hot, is showing signs of cooling down. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was recently much higher than expected. A total of 264,000 citizens filed for government assistance last week, according to the Labour Department in Washington yesterday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected only 245,000, after 242,000 the previous week.

Tipping Point?

The initial jobless claims thus no longer remain far below the critical 270’000 mark, which is considered a tipping point that signals a deterioration in the labour market. Most recently, job creation in the job market had been robust: In April, 253’000 new non-farm jobs were added. However, job creation in March was not as strong as initially reported, as the number was revised downwards by the ministry to 165’000 from 236’000.

Alternative indicator

In addition to the number of initial jobless claims, the development of the U.S. labour market can also be measured by the development of the U.S. job advertising market index. The development of the U.S. job advertising market index, i.e. the market for job ads in the U.S., has been moving sideways since the beginning of the year. Therefore, any resumption of any downward trend in that index would signal an adverse change in the U.S. labour market.

Hence

Hence I am increasingly convinced that interest rates, at least in the U.S., are peaking. But, let me be frank, Ladies and Gentlemen, this does not mean any immediate interest rate decrease.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and a wonderful weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li