What if China …

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“I’m afraid the masquerade is over…”

From the song “The Masquerade is Over” by Allie Wrubel & Herb Magidson

What if China

What if China, as suggested in a recent article in a biweekly Swiss financial newspaper, exports goods at subsidised prices to markets outside China due to sluggish domestic market activity just to keep Chinese GDP growth up?

Inflationary trends

While, as I did write in my “Stefan’s Weekly” for the last few months on several occasions, I was very cautious about the overconfidence in the markets about forecasted, or should I write hoped for, multiple interest rate cuts by Western central banks, today I feel the opposite. I now believe there is too much pessimism in the market. When I now read the first news coverage mentioning that the U.S. Fed will not reduce its base rates in 2024, I feel confident they will.

Chinese impact on global trade

One sign of the unloading of overcapacity is the marked increase in China’s export share of the global market. Compared to 2019, the eurozone recorded a significant decline in industrial exports in relation to global industrial production, while China achieved a considerable increase. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained in an interview after her visit to China last week that new tariffs against China are possible because: “we are concerned about a possible increase in Chinese exports in sectors with large overcapacity.” Western consumers may welcome the low prices of Chinese products, but domestic companies and concerns about economic growth will pressure governments in industrialized nations. Tensions in global trade are, therefore, likely to escalate further. What would that mean for Western (and other) economies?

One simple conclusion

While inflation in many Western countries still exceeds central banks’ targets, China is currently threatened by deflation. A straightforward conclusion could, therefore, be that deflation will turn on stage again in Europe and the U.S.. If subsidised inexpensive products of relatively good quality from China enter global markets, they will displace more expensive products from Western manufacturers. The US and Western countries are criticizing “unfair trade practices” by the People’s Republic. It seems no measure is ruled out to combat the Chinese government’s “unfair practices” in international trade.

Second simple conclusion

And yet, I would not rule out economic growth in Western economies may stall, which could rein in inflation and lead to a reduction in base interest rates. We will see soon enough, Ladies and Gentlemen.

Sarah Vaughan

And now let’s listen to “I’m afraid the masquerade is over” interpreted by wonderful Sarah Vaughan: Sarah Vaughan – (I’m Afraid) The Masquerade Is Over (youtube.com).

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li