Year-End Competition 1. Update

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Your Guesses

Wow, Ladies and Gentlemen, some of you seem really bearish, at least for equities. So far, the highest S&P bid came in at 4’482, the lowest at 1’881, with an average of around 3’100. On the other side, most of my readers seem to be optimistic about gold. So far, the highest bid for gold came at 2’350, the lowest at 1’715. For crude oil, the price estimates range from160 to 88 (mine), with an average way above today’s levels.

My Guess

As always, I am happy to share my estimates with you as well. For the S&P, I am not all that negative and guess it will close at around 4’200 in 2022. Roughly 4’200 is a level that I could imagine building either some sort of resistance or otherwise a floor in the market. So how did I guess my numbers? I often orient myself around the futures prices quoted at the CME for gold, crude oil and other natural resources. This is why my guess for the year-end price of gold comes in at 1’803 and for crude oil at 88.

Peak Bearishness?

I do not think that bearishness is at its peak. At this moment, it seems we are past the point already. Although, as our reader, Annika, pointed out to me correctly, cash levels among investors are high. This is true, yet; there has been a rebound, at least in some asset classes. This is why I believe we have left peak bearishness behind us for the time being. Currently, I am, at times, almost surprised that equity markets are holding up that well. Looking at the daily newsflow, one could become depressive and, considering investors turn depressive; one would probably be bound to sell rather than buy.

Ladies and Gentlemen   

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a great weekend, and above all and still, peace!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li