Juni 2018 - Seite 2 von 2

Warum Gold in Dollar billig ist

Posted on Juni 16, 2018Juni 16, 2018 by Ronald Stöferle

Ronald-Peter Stöferle traf Chris Martenson von „www.goldsilver.com“, um seinen Ausblick für Gold zusammenzufassen. Er kommt zu dem Schluss, dass Gold im Moment in Dollar ausgedrückt billig ist. Und er sieht einen neuen Aufwärtstrend für das Edelmetall, der schnell an Fahrt gewinnen dürfte, wenn die nächste (und längst überfällige) Korrektur auf den Finanzmärkten eintrifft. (Das Video ist nur auf English verfügbar.)

Stefan’s weekly: Central Bank Action

Posted on Juni 15, 2018Juni 16, 2018 by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Most Central Banks’ goal is price stability, which basically means they want to keep inflation under control. There may be other goals as well, like for example the U.S. Federal Reserve System also and explicitly takes unemployment into the equation.

Ever since the financial crisis ten years ago, Central Banks are seriously coordinating their actions. This was already the case before WW2 and ever since but never as rigid as in the past 10 years. That is probably why we have not seen the huge swings in exchange rates between the major global currencies versus the US Dollar in the last years, which seem to have been more frequent prior to the financial crisis.

Looking at long term interest rates and long-term exchange rates, Japan, is somewhat ahead of the curve in comparison to other members of the G 20. Japan is on ultra-low interest rates for a few decades already, is deeply indebted and yet, price stability is granted, and the YEN’s exchange rates versus other major currencies is reasonably stable. Of course, debt still increases, and Japan’s government debt levels have grown to above 250% of GDP, which certainly is a massive!

However, the Bank of Japan currently owns roughly 50% of Japan’s government debt. In 2011 this number stood at 9% and still we cannot detect any sign of inflation. If the Bank of Japan owns 50% of Japanese government bonds and is willing to buy up everything the market is not absorbing, they are heavily interfering and, I think one could call it like that,” manipulating” government bond’s interest rates. On the other hand, I am asking myself what would happen if tomorrow the Bank of Japan decided to decrease their bloated balance sheet and just cancel all Japanese Government bonds on it. In such a scenario Japan’s debt levels would decrease immediately at the same time, I am asking myself, would investors and the Japanese people still show trust in the Japanese currency? Would maybe trust in it even increase or would it decrease to an extent to cause high inflation or even hyperinflation?

After all, Ladies and Gentlemen, as long as people believe in the relatively stable long term purchasing power of a currency, hyperinflation will not occur.

Please share your thoughts and ideas with me. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Stefan’s weekly: A Good Business Partner

Posted on Juni 1, 2018Juni 1, 2018 by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

I was thinking of a few traits that would be most wanted in a good business partner and you are probably asking yourself why I would be dedicating this week’s weekly mail to such a topic.

Well, just wait and see…

I think you do want your business partner to share similar visions (1) and be passionate (2) about them. You also want your business partner to challenge you (3) and to be at least partially complimentary (4) to yourself, but most of all your business partner should be integer (5) reliable (6) and trustworthy (7).

I am sure there are many more important traits but to me those seven traits represent a pretty good sample of what I am looking for in a business partner.

Now, I was asking myself if President Trump is a good business partner to other global political leaders, American politicians, his GOP colleagues, his supporters, CEOs of international companies, CEOs of American companies, etc. Therefore, I had to first think about the traits that make up a good business partner. So much for the explanation and now let’s see where President Trump meets the (my) criteria and where not. However, I want to add an important remark, this simple analysis heavily depends on each and everyone’s own perspective and therefore in this very case only represents my humble point of view.

I think President Trump may share similar visions (1) to some extent with some global political leaders, American politicians, GOP colleagues, supporters, CEOs of international companies, CEOs of American companies, etc but not with others. He seems very passionate (2) about his visions. He also seems to challenge (3) people wanting to do business with him and/or the United States and I am certain he is complimentary (4) to many of his peers and all the others.

When it comes to integrity (5), reliability (6) and trustworthiness (7) I am not sure (at least from what I extract from the media) if President Trump makes such a good business partner. I do get the impression that you can never be sure of what comes next with him and that contracts and agreements, even if in place for decades, may be amended or cancelled in no time.

What does this mean for international relations and international trade? Europe for example was and still is very much engaged with the U.S. ever since WW2 and today I get the impression, European political leaders seem somewhat lost.

Why is this important? For us it is important in respect to investing. Investing in a period of uncertainty is riskier than investing in stable times, volatility goes up and especially private investors sometimes get nervous.

What is your take on this?