Schlagwort: Equities

Advisory Board Q4 – feat. Dan Oliver

Posted on by Incrementum AG

Dear investors, friends and clients,

On our advisory board call this quarter we had special guest Dan Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital, an advisory firm specializing in precious metals investments. Dan is also president of the Committee for Monetary Research & Education.

During the call we talked about:

  • Why gold always maintains its purchasing power
  • What happened in the repo market.
  • Why QE4 has already started.
  • How the Fed has failed.
  • Incrementum’s inflation signal turning to „full inflation“.
  • Trade ideas for the upcoming quarter.
  • and much more.

We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring!

 

The Complancency Bubble – Incrementum Advisory Board Q3 – feat. Simon Mikhailovich and Jim Rickards

Posted on by Ronald Stöferle

Dear investors, friends and clients,

Our special guest this quarter was our dear friend Simon Mikhailovich. Simon is a contrarian investor and entrepreneur.

During the call we talked about:

  • How the Fed has already created hyperinflation.
  • How the US might have to enter a new arms race.
  • Why a market crash is not the biggest risk to the US economy and what is the biggst risk actually?
  • Why US rates will go lower, and why European rates will become even more negative.

We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring!

There is no magic!

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

There is no magic! Financial well-being and prosperity need a minimum amount of economic growth.

You know, I received a fair amount of positive feedback to Anton’s article on increased productivity and economic growth thanks to cheap and all time readily available (fossil) energy and again, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is no magic, economic growth demands cheap and 24/7 readily available energy.

… and without economic growth, large parts of populations will not be able of keeping their standard of living on current levels and even less of increasing it, unfortunately there is no magic there either.

I believe if large parts of a population feel economic pressure, eventually those people will want to vent their feelings, and this may lead to unpredictable and inconvenient consequences. The yellow vests movement in France is only one very recent example right in front of our doorsteps.

The cost of such protests is enormous and, there is again no magic, will have to be borne by the country’s population. While the wealthier cohort will not really feel any impact, it is a twist of fate that the less fortunate cohort, the ones that are in the street protesting for a better life, will be hurt even more over time through indirect tax increases, inflation, general increase in cost of living.

The question for me and my readers is how to invest in such an environment. I firmly believe there is again no magic. If you want to have some sort of cash return on your assets in a 0% or negative interest environment, you can get it by accepting volatility. If you are ready to accept volatility you can have easily 4% – 5% cash return on your investments. But volatility is not for everyone. People get very quickly very nervous. Long term statistics show that equities beat bonds but the price you pay for the extra performance of equities over bonds is volatility. No magic, Ladies and Gentlemen! I don’t mind volatility; I prefer low volatility to high volatility, but I don’t really mind it that much.

Besides equities, where do you want to invest your money and receive a cash return if not in equities?

What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, as Anton did, please share your thoughts, ideas and/or experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Gold Equities finally turning a corner? Incrementum Advisory Board Q2 – feat. special guest Mark Burridge (Baker Steel)

Posted on by Incrementum AG

Dear investors, friends and clients,

Are gold equities finally turning a corner? 

On our advisory board call this quarter we had special guest Mark Burridge, Managing Partner at Baker Steel Capital Managers. Mark has a background in mining geology, and has been in the metals and mining industry for 25 years. As we are very excited about the recently established cooperation between Baker Steel and Incrementum, we thought it might be worthwhile to pick Mark’s brains. 

During the call we talked about:

  • What positive changes are gold mining companies finally making?
  • How is ESG and technology changing the mining industry?
  • Are we finally close to a recession?
  • One economic measure is at a 12-year low – why could that suddenly matter a lot?
  • What ticking timebomb could set off the markets?

We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring!
Have a great start into the new week!   

Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Incrementum AG

Im alten Riet 102
FL-9494 Schaan
www.incrementum.li 

Yield or how to receive cashflows in a negative yield environment

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen I received a few mails on my very provocative statement that house pets, farming and children produce an enormous amount of greenhouse gases. I was provocative on purpose. It was my intention to trigger some reactions. I received two mails on the indirect financing of (nuclear) weapons via government bonds. It seemed most of my readers were never really looking at it that way. Fact is that you will never know what a government is doing with the money you pass on to them when subscribing to one of their bonds. They may buy weapons or build a children’s hospital with it – it is entirely up to them. I generally receive several mails per month from readers asking me how they should invest their money to achieve the best possible results. As always, I can’t tell you and I am not allowed to give any advice to you just like that, but I am happy to elaborate quickly on what I think seems a decent strategy to still get some yield in a negative yield environment. You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, my goal always is to receive cashflow with limited volatility. Some of my readers already know about my investment style. My investment style is real asset based and enjoys a rather large equity portion. However, the equity portion is limited to equities of companies producing positive net free cashflows and I like rebalancing the position in my clients’ portfolios from time to time. This means I define a “normal” weighting, i.e. around 5% for any equity position in a portfolio and harvest the dividends or capital reductions the underlying company shares with its investors. If the price of an equities-position appreciates over time and thus the weighting within the client’s portfolio goes up, I will start cutting back the position down to its initial 5% weighting. If, however, the price of an investment goes down and I can’t find any dramatic change in the strategic and/or earnings perspective and the company still produces positive net free cashflows, I harvest the cashflows and increase the position until it reaches its intended weighting of 5%. The result of this strategy is astonishing. Volatility decreases massively and performance increases. When markets are moving up, we only capture a part of the positive performance, because we like to keep a large cash position at hand. But when markets are going down, we usually only lose a fraction of what the market loses. It is during the down moves that we generate alpha. You can have a look at the monthly development of one of our portfolios on our website. https://www.incrementum.li/en/wealth-management/ It still needs the “right” equities and this is probably the most difficult part. Please let me know about your investment style and please share your investment experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li Many thanks, indeed! And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
 Kind regards,Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG