This time is different

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

«The key is not to predict the future but to prepare for it.»

Feedback

You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, Anton and I received many messages, i.e. feedbacks to the last two issues of «Stefan’s weekly». Thank you very much, Barbara, Gabriel, Bob, Garry, Mark, Anton, Stephen, Robert, Paul and many others, for your precious feedbacks and discussions. The quote by Pericles (Pericles—facts and information (nationalgeographic.com)) was sent to me by Bob. Many thanks, it fits perfectly our discussion on inflation!

And yet

We firmly believe comparing historical events and conclude that „this may be so from now on“ is a shortcut to fundamental analysis. In the end, Anton, me or whoever, we do not know; we may assume and try to make sense of it. I can assure you, my partners and I are trying very hard to give our best possible view, but more we cannot possibly do.

This time is different

As Anton wrote to me, if we look back at the last 120 years, economies have changed their composition a lot! Therefore, the mechanisms for transmitting monetary policy and fiscal policies are different. Furthermore, the size of companies and governments is very different. The world today has almost no resemblance to that in the 60s or 70s, or 90s. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am always amazed at how analysts, bankers and investors can ignore this fact. By definition, «this time is different.» Even if we may draw certain conclusions from the past, and I can quickly agree to that, and even if we recognise correlations, historical events can not reproduce one for one.

Custom-tailored inflation

I mentioned to Gabriel in a mail last week that inflation is something rather personal. I did write a weekly about the topic last year. The shopping basket used by governments to measure inflation first of all changes from country to country and the composition changes from economic period to economic period, and yet it still is most probably not comparable to the shopping baskets of most individual citizens of any given country. This is why I recommend those interested in creating their own inflation measure, doing so by composing your shopping baskets and noting down prices of your household’s 20 most important products used in your household (for example, in an excel sheet) and write down the price changes quarterly. It probably makes sense to weigh the individual products used in your household in % of the total household budget for more advanced statisticians.

Please let me know your views!

… but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth