Ukraine Crisis

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,

The great Wayne Gretzky once said: «I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.»

U.S. Private Investors

Some weeks ago, I pointed out that U.S. private investors‘ bullish expectations were on low levels. Guess what? This Wednesday, that number dropped again. The number now stands at 19.2% versus 24.4% in the previous week. 19.2% represents a new trend low. Readings below 20 are rare. This was only the case at the beginning of the 2015/2016 bear market in the past five years.

Ukraine Crisis

The Ukraine crisis is determining the current price trend on the stock exchanges. Almost all other developments are being pushed into the background. Among traders, a famous saying goes: «political markets have short legs». „Short legs“ may mean, in the event of an actual outbreak of war, that the adjustment to the new circumstances would take place quickly, in the form of significantly falling prices. However, the first buying opportunity would occur within a few days. If, on the other hand, a conflict can be avoided, at least for the time being, there would be a relief rally due to an already built-in war premium. A positive diplomatic solution would come as a surprise, be unexpected, provide relief, and lead to higher prices.

Wayne Gretzky

In that situation, what would Wayne Gretzky do? Would he buy into the market, expecting it to go up, assuming a diplomatic solution to be reached? Or, would he reduce his holdings, assuming further tensions escalating into a war and thus falling markets?

What do you think?

Do you think global leaders are capable of finding a diplomatic solution, or are they sacrificing the Ukrainian people to their unclear visions? Furthermore, how do you invest your money in a situation of such great political tension? Please let me know, because I would love to be able to do it the Wayne Gretzky way and skate to where the puck is going to be!

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li